Baron’s High-Resolution Weather and Water Prediction Modeling to Improve Maritime Forecasting in Indonesia

Key Industries Will Receive Improved Safety Information

Huntsville, AL – Baron, a worldwide leader in weather intelligence and an expert in high-resolution weather and water modeling, has been chosen to provide a state-of-the-art Coupled Atmospheric Water and Ocean (CAWO) modeling system to the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (BMKG). The modeling system is a new emerging technology in the field of “metocean” prediction. The new system will provide unprecedented accuracy for forecasts of the atmosphere above the ocean’s surface, waves at the surface, and ocean currents, ultimately providing life-saving information and protecting property in the island nation.

CAWO is an example of the Baron team leading the way in modeling technology designed to meet the increasing need for more reliable maritime forecasting worldwide. In this project, Baron is as a sub-contractor to prime contractor CLS Group, a subsidiary of the French Space Agency and a Belgium fundings company CNP, a global company and pioneer provider of monitoring and surveillance solutions for the Earth. The project will serve as a blueprint for other nations looking to improve the safety of their coastal industries and populations. The Coupled Marine model is a key component in Indonesia’s Marine Meteorology System (MMS), a program designed to maximize its maritime economy by increasing weather awareness and safety on the seas and shorelines.

CAWO uniquely couples an atmospheric Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model together with a sea surface wave model and a deep ocean circulation model, providing improved fidelity at the atmosphere/ocean interface. The result is a 10-day forecast for waves, swell, wind, currents, temperature, salinity, water level. Baron’s technology coupling the 3 previously distinct modeling components will provide BMKG forecasting capabilities not available from other models.

“By dynamically computing ocean wave characteristics and circulation as they exchange information on the fly with the atmospheric model, precipitation forecasting in the maritime environment improves along with the ability to track and forecast tropical cyclones,” said John McHenry, Chief Scientist at Baron. “It absolutely provides more accurate and complete forecast information than a non-coupled model that relies on approximations or static data to represent conditions at the lower or upper model boundaries.”

CAWO will update 4 times daily and run at 3km resolution. It will cover all the Indonesian and adjacent maritime areas. This is the first model to produce forecasts for such a large domain at such high resolutions. The model will be installed on a very high-powered computer at BMKG headquarters in Jakarta.

In keeping with Baron’s focus on customer support and training, the Baron team will be proactively working with BMKG over the course of several years. During this time continued evaluation of the model and BMKG’s needs will result in consistent updates and tunings to maximize and validate model accuracy. As part of the MMS1 project, 200 meteorological instruments will be deployed, including drifting buoys, tide gauges, oceanographic floats and more.

To help BMKG manage the daily operation of CAWO, Baron is providing end-to-end workflow software known as the Real-time Operational Modeling Environment (ROME). Included in ROME are webpages that display model results and status pages that operations personnel will use to assess the ongoing progress of model runs while enabling real-time troubleshooting when needed. Baron will also provide technical support for the life of the project.

Indonesia consists of more than 17,000 islands and more than 75% of the nation’s territory is water. The more accurate forecasts from the CAWO modeling system will allow maritime industries in Indonesia, including fishing, shipping, passenger ferries and others to have a better understanding of maritime conditions that could impact the safety and efficiency of their operations. Analysis and forecast data from the model will be used to create a more effective early warning system to alert citizens of dangerous weather at sea or on the coastline.