The red hurricane icon may not be on the map yet, but you know it’s coming. And it may only be days before operations grind to a halt or your team’s safety is compromised.
Social media is often flooded with misleading messages when a potential storm has yet to be identified. And it can certainly be unsettling when forecast models paint a grim picture but there isn’t even a cone! This is the time to ditch the everyday weather app, listen closely to local officials, and trust reputable meteorologists.
The tightrope between overreacting and under-preparing is not fun. But it can be navigated successfully when your plan is built on trustworthy data, includes timely decisions, and leaves room for adjustments through what will likely become a very fluid situation.
Be Skeptical of Specifics at First
Hurricane models are built on the premise of tracking a single feature—the center of a storm—and how it interacts with its future environment. If there is no clear center of circulation, the model’s output is usually a toss-up. And even a young storm can be volatile to sudden shifts in direction and intensity until it becomes more organized.
Taking cues from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is one way to stay grounded in preparation for a likely but unidentified risk. Despite advances in forecast models and their much broader reach, NHC experts rightfully stay methodical and conservative in their approach when they believe a storm will form close to land. Reacting to one run of a forecast model in this situation to make decisions is almost always a mistake waiting to happen.
Conversely, it’s also not a good idea to explicitly trust the same weather app you use to plan your weekends. Most consumer weather apps are computer-generated from a forecast model that often can’t account for the array of outcomes from a developing hurricane. They often won't include the specifics of storm surge, extreme wind, tornadoes, or potential flooding that a hurricane can bring.
Know When to Make Your First Move
Hurricane or not, the timer is always counting. We often look to the NHC cone of uncertainty for its timestamps. But when there is no cone (yet), it can be difficult to assess when to act. Your preparation window is steadily shrinking, and you may not have the time to wait for one.
The National Hurricane Center produces a Tropical Weather Outlook highlighting potential development areas over the next seven days. If your business or assets are near an area with a moderate or high chance, you’ll likely want to at least start coming up with a plan.
Even if the system of interest doesn’t become a hurricane, there could be significant impacts. For example, a weak and slow-moving tropical storm can produce just as much flooding and tornadoes as a rapidly intensifying one just before landfall. In all tropical weather situations, the key moments to prepare for are the arrival of disruptive impacts, when those impacts will be at their worst, and how long they will last.
Another clue to help you prepare is when a credible forecast model shows run-to-run consistency on a likely outcome. You can then begin to craft your plan around specific impacts. This lessens your reliance on an official forecast or the nuances that come with it, such as exactly where it tracks or how strong it may become.
Hurricanes Ian (2022) and Idalia (2023) rapidly intensified into major hurricanes as they approached Florida. But they both were only tropical storms in their formative state just two days before landfall. Despite this dramatic escalation, the Baron Model accurately projected landfall within a county and category when it entered the model’s domain.
Stay Flexible and Vigilant
When a tropical cyclone attempts to form near land, forecast confidence is much lower than usual. Your plan must be crafted to allow for adaptation without compromise. To do this, consider a range of potential outcomes and impacts from the soon-to-be storm.
On the high end, include actions you would take if the storm were one category stronger than explicitly forecast. For example, if the official forecast is for a strong tropical storm, prepare for a Category 1 hurricane. On the low end, identify decisions that can be cautiously scaled back to conserve resources as the situation warrants. This will give your team the confidence and peace of mind to weather the twists and turns of a very changeable situation.
When credible data is used at the right time, these moments can be accurately planned for. We created a decision maker's guide to hurricane response based on the premise of a long-track storm approaching over many days. The same concept applies during the storm’s formative stage when it’s on your doorstep, but with a shorter timeline.
Making the right decision at the wrong time can be a costly mistake. Buying the right weather data just isn't enough. You must know how and when to use it. And we have a cheat sheet for that. The insights in our decision-makers hurricane guide will be useful when you start to see projections for a hurricane or tropical storm that might affect your business or assets.
The logistics of hurricane response are not easy, even when you have many days to prepare. When a tropical storm or hurricane is expected to form just offshore and your plans must be implemented quickly, investments in smarter weather data from Baron can empower you to confidently make those decisions in a much shorter amount of time.
